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Prediction for CME (2023-07-18T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-18T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26092/-1
CME Note: The source of this NE CME is likely an eruption and M1.4 flare from AR 3376 (N27E35) starting ~2023-07-18T19:25Z as seen in SDO AIA. This event partially overlaps with CME 2023-07-18T20:36Z. Arrival signature: from Tarik Mohammad (LASSOS team) a well-defined shock (increase in magnetic field strength, proton density, and bulk speed). A possible sheath region following the shock (enhancements in all the parameters). The possible ICME ejecta start is ~2023-07-21T22:20Z: rotations in both B_y (positive to negative) and B_z (negative to positive) and a sharp decrease in proton density and decrease in bulk speed and temperature. Possibly flank CME encounter since the components (specially B_x and B_y) remain constant. The end of the ICME ejecta is difficult to determine as we have a trailing high-speed stream. The possible end is around 2023-07-22T06:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-21T19:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-21T12:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Lead Time: 52.20 hour(s)
Difference: 6.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-07-19T15:13Z

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